Wizard Of Odds Ultimate Texas Holdem

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There was an earlier thread I posted on here, on finding - searching, actually, - for the most 'elegant and easy' strategy for Playing UTH, Ultimate texas Hold 'em. (That thread is here.)
So many players play UTH quite poorly, - so very poorly - (and everyone here agrees...) - but UTH strategy shouldn't be hard to do.
So far, NO one here at this place could come up with a one-sentence, one-line Holy Grail of 4x UTH strategy, in a nutshell. No one, - not even CRM or Mike.
So...I HAD to bounce THIS one off of 'old school casino bastard' Frank Rajek himself. And he gave me a concise, terse, and VERY accurate strategy for the game, something akin to Mike Shackleford's 'Wizard's simple Strategyfor Blackjack.' I had to post this, because Frank showed up old' Danny Boy on this one - I had missed it!!!!
I was telling Frank recently over dinner at Sergio's Italian Restaurant that my wife plays the sh]t out of Three Card Poker every time we go the Orleans - but SHE CANNOT seem to get the BASIC 4x play move in UTH!
Frank said UTH raising is the same thing as three card poker, and that is actually it:
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If you would PLAY a three card Poker hand with Q-6 or better, then you would also Raise it 4x on UTH with the same hand! Just do it, it's perfect.
Takes balls, though, but you gotta do it, as the 4x raise is where it is at. He argued that Q-6 is almost the same as Q-8, - and lowering to Q-6 accounts for dropping the J-10 4x bet anyway, and is essentially the same, statiscally. Different games, but same 'accurately ballpark' strategy.' I disagree with that fine-tuning logic, but as a simple strategy, it seems very accurate.
I love it: my old school friend/pit boss Frank Rajek giving ME the Strategy for Ultimate Texas Hold 'em: Raise 4x with a Q-6, - just as you would in three card poker, else check. Fucking Simple, and SO close to all 4x strategies on this game - just nuts!!! I am pissed at myself - and CRM - for not seeing this nutshell!At the VERY least, it is one hell of an easy strategy point.
Maybe you do learn something in the pit!!
Q-6, chunk 4x, else check - just like Three Card. That is it. How the f*ck didn't I see this??!! This is 90% of the player's side of the game.

Maybe easy enough for the people on here but 99.9% of all the other UTH players wont play this way. Most players have no poker sense what so ever. Hell, they won't even raise with a big ace let alone Q,6. For these people aren't trying to beat the dealer. They think they need to make a good hand to win. They simply want to win the trips bet because, 'thats where the money is.'

Most players think like they're playing against the table, not the dealer. Once you get comfortable with the understanding that you only have to beat one guy, it gets easy to follow the correct strategy. From there, the biggest problem is bankroll management: bring enough money to weather the strings of x-x and the bad beats!

Most players think like they're playing against the table, not the dealer. Once you get comfortable with the understanding that you only have to beat one guy, it gets easy to follow the correct strategy. From there, the biggest problem is bankroll management: bring enough money to weather the strings of x-x and the bad beats!

I think Bad beats are key in making the Average Joe mistrust the strategy. My wife had an A-9, chunked 4x (while giving me this 'you better know what you're doing' eye), paired the ace on the flop, - and then lost to a straight. I checked, and lucked out with the same straight. But Her reaction? 'You see, the strategy is WRONG - I lost! And There's the PROOF! You gotta go with your gut!'
yikes....

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If you would PLAY a three card Poker hand with Q-6 or better, then you would also Raise it 4x on UTH with the same hand! Just do it, it's perfect.
Takes balls, though, but you gotta do it, as the 4x raise is where it is at. He argued that Q-6 is almost the same as Q-8, - and lowering to Q-6 accounts for dropping the J-10 4x bet anyway, and is essentially the same, statiscally.

I don't know that I'd say that it 'accounts for' it. These errors compound; they don't cancel out (ie, raising hands that you shouldn't costs money, just like not raising hands that you should costs money)
I agree that this is a WAY better strategy than most players follow. You are only misplaying a few hands (raising Q6o, Q7o, K2o, K3o, K4o, 22, and not raising JT, J9s, J8s). Having said that, the correct strategy is pretty simple to learn, too.
It doesn't matter. Anyone who cares to play well will learn the correct strategy and play properly. It's not hard, and you can always just get a strategy card. Most people don't understand math, and just don't want to risk the big bet on a hand that wins barely more than 50% of the time. They think that they are being smart by betting conservatively. They don't understand how much money they are giving away by playing this way, and they never will. They win the hand anyway, so they get positive reinforcement for their terrible play.
FWIW, this is a good thing. UTH is a slow game. The HE is too low for a game that has that few hands per hour. I suspect that most players give up a 10% edge, or more. If everyone started playing properly, and so the house profits dropped by 80%, I suspect that the game would get removed from most casinos. Plus, they would stop comping it so well :)

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If you would PLAY a three card Poker hand with Q-6 or better, then you would also Raise it 4x on UTH with the same hand! Just do it, it's perfect.
I don't know that I'd say that it 'accounts for' it. These errors compound; they don't cancel out (ie, raising hands that you shouldn't costs money, just like not raising hands that you should costs money)

Yes, they [the errors] do compound, but it is still very close, extremely close, to the full strategy - which is ALWAYS worth fully learning. I find that learning the 'easy and close' strategy helps lead a person seek the full, correct strategy, when hooking into a new game - IF they have the courage to bet.

..Most people don't understand math, and just don't want to risk the big bet on a hand that wins barely more than 50% of the time....
FWIW, this is a good thing. UTH is a slow game. The HE is too low for a game that has that few hands per hour. I suspect that most players give up a 10% edge, or more.

Yes, I think they give up a HUGE percentage, - moreso than 'hitting or not hitting 16 vs. 7' in blackjack by comparison, as giving up the 4x raise is huge. But It does take courage to chunk 4x on K-3 suited, but the real problem with so many UTH players is that they 'trust their gut more than they trust the math.'
I think it is far more a 'gambler's gut and courage' issue, than an 'understanding the math issue,' - or obeying the best strategy dictates. A gambler's nerves may rule him in the end, and in many situations. The nature of the game can make any lesser gambler hesitate and fail.
NO other game has this problem to this extent. Here, in UTH, having 'the heart,' or having the Gambling Cojones to actually TRUST the strategy is so VERY hard to do; you're betting a quarter on the ANTE and the Blind, and you get K-10 offsuit. 90% of the UTH players will say, 'Aw, sh]t, now I gotta bet $100 by best strategy? I can't DO it!! CHECK!' I've seen CRM whip it out 4x on the PLAY bet without batting an eye at any level, and I do so, too - (and with my wife yelling at me, 'Jesus, Dan, R U F-ing crazy??') The fact of the matter is that I'd be crazy NOT to, but so FEW see it, - that the ballsy play is actually the brainy play in this case; they coincide.
And you are right - with UTH having a 0.53% house edge (when accouting for the element of risk, with RARE proper play!) UTH would be unsupportable. But I can tell you this, - and I believe it now - no WAY will the vast majority of players put their cash and cojones on the line as needed - when real push comes to shove. The mistakes in UTH are NOT like minor cover play mistakes in Blackjack, a fraction of a fraction of a percent. A mistake at the 'Raise Four Times on the hole cards alone' level in costs a LOT in percentage, but costs even more in terms of player courage, and so it will not be done. I don't know HOW many times I've seen a UTH player quietly utter, 'I just can do it....' - and Check.
When you add in strategy complexity after the flop, it now becomes a matter of brains - and after the potential 4x raise was a matter of balls, so to speak. Between the two, UTH operates as a 3%+ House edge game because of these factors.
Got to hand it to Roger (Pacman) on this one. just brilliant. Roger Snow understands more than just the casino math of his games. He also fully understands the casino player.Matter over both mind and math.

Introduction

Rules

1. A single 52-card deck is used. All cards count as its poker value. Aces may be high or low.
2. One player is designated as the dealer, usually with a laminated marker. This person does not have to physically deal the game. However it is important that a symbolic dealer position rotate around the table.
3. The player to the dealer's left must make a 'small blind' bet. The player to the left of the small blind must make a 'big blind' bet. The amounts of both blinds should be specified in advance. The purpose of the blinds is to get the ball rolling with some money in the pot.
4. Two cards shall be dealt down to each player, starting with the person to the dealer's left.
5. The player to the left of the big blind must either call or raise the big blind bet. The play in turn will go around the table according to normal poker rules, which I assume the reader already knows. Table rules will specify any limits on the size or number of allowed raises.
6. The small blind may also raise the big blind. If nobody raises the big blind the player making the big blind has the option to raise his own bet. The term for this is the 'big blind option.'
7. Three community cards will be dealt face up in the center of the table. This is called the 'flop.'
8. Another round of betting will ensue, starting with the player to the dealer's left.
9. A fourth community card will be dealt face up in the center of the table. This card is called the 'turn.'
10. Another round of betting will ensue, starting with the player to the dealer's left. Generally the minimum bet is double the first two rounds of betting.
11. A fifth and final community card will be dealt face up in the center of the table. This card is called the 'river.'
12. Another round of betting will ensue, starting with the player to the dealer's left. The minimum bet is generally the same as the previous round.

13. Each player still in the game at the end will determine the highest poker value among his own two cards and the five community cards. It is NOT a requirement that the player use both of his own cards. The player with the hand of highest poker value shall win. Following are the hand rankings.

    1. Straight flush: Five consecutive and suited cards. For example 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
    2. Four of a kind: Four cards of the same rank, plus any fifth card. For example Q, Q, Q, Q ,4.
    3. Full house: Three of a kind and a pair. For example 6, 6, 6, J , J.
    4. Flush: Any five cards of the same suit, except for a higher ranking straight flush. For example A, Q, 8, 4 , 3.
    5. Straight: Five consecutive cards, except for a higher ranking straight flush. For example 8, 9, 10, J, Q.
    6. Three of a kind: Three cards of the same rank, plus any other two cards. For example 5, 5, 5, Q ,2 .
    7. Two pair: Two pairs, plus any fifth card. For example 8, 8, 2, 2 ,Q .
    8. Pair: A pair and any other three cards. For example 7, 7, 2, 5 ,A .
    9. ? High: Any five cards that do not form any higher poker hand. A king high hand for example might be K, Q, 7, 5 ,4 .
14. If two or more players have poker values of the same rank then the individual cards will be used to break the tie. If necessary all five cards will be considered.
15. I get asked a lot whether the two unused cards in a player's hand are used to break a tie. The answer is a firm NO. The two unused cards do not matter.
16. If a new player arrives at the table he should either wait for the big blind position or put up an amount equal to the big blind, amounting to a call of the big blind.
17. If a bet is made after another player runs out of money, then a separate pot is created. The player that ran out of money is not eligible to win the second pot. If more than one player runs out of money then multiple separate pots can be created.
18. In formal games players may not bet with cash or buy chips with cash in the middle of a hand.
19. There are numerous rules of etiquette, which I won't get into.
20. There house may set the betting rules. There are three main types. A 'structured' game features raises of specified amounts. For example a '3/6 game' would mean that raises after the deal and flop are $3, and after the turn and river are $6. There is usually a limit to the number of raises a player may make, typically three. A 'pot limit' game has structured minimum raises but the maximum raise may be anything up to the amount in the pot at the time the raise is made. A 'no limit' game also has structured minimum raises but there is no maximum raise.

Examples

Example 1

Board: A, 2, 4, 5, 6
Player 1: J, 6
Player 2: 7, Q

Player 1 wins. Both have an ace high flush, so the second highest card is considered. Player 1's jack beats player 2's 7. The only way to have a flush tie is if the flush is entirely on the board and no hole cards are higher than the lowest card on the board in the same suit.

Example 2

Board: J, A, 7, 5, 6
Player 1: 2, J
Player 2: 10, J

Player 2 wins. Both have a pair of jacks so the singletons are considered. High highet singleton in both hands is an ace so the second highest singleton is considered. Player 1's second highest singleton is a 7, compared to player 2's 10. A 10 beats a 7 so player 2 wins.

Example 3

Board: A, A, K, Q, J
Player 1: Q, J
Player 2: Q, 2

Tie. Both have a two pair of aces and queens, with a king singleton. Some people incorrectly believe that in such cases the unused cards are considered, in this case player 1's pair of jacks beating player 2's jack/2. Only the top five cards matter. The jacks and deuce are irrelevant.

One of the most important aspects of Texas Hold'em is the value of each two-card hand before the flop. The decision of how to play your first two cards is something you face every hand, and the value of your first two cards is highly correlated to your probability of winning.

The following table shows my power rating for each initial 2-card hand in a 10-player game. The numbers are on a 0 to 40 scale. Basically, you should only play hands that are dark green, blue, or purple. Of course you should be more be more liberal in late position and picky in early position. If forced I would say you should need 10 points in late position and 19 points in early position to call the big blind. If your table is loose, as if often the case online, you can play a bit looser yourself.

Use the top table if you have a pair, the middle table if your cards are suited, and the bottom table if your cards are unsuited. Except for a pair,look up your high card along the left and your low card along the top.

Following are the links to my tables of the value of each intial hand according to the number of players. The 10-player section explains the methodology for creating the table table.

Pot Odds

The following table shows the probability of making various hands after the flop and the correct 'pot odds.' The pot odds are the breakeven ratio of money in the pot to the amount you have to bet for the player to be indifferent about calling, assuming the player would definitely win if he makes the hand (a big if) and there are no additional bets (another big if). This table is a good starting point the player should make mental adjustments for the probability of winning without making the hand, losing with making the hand, and expected future bets. The odds of a two pair improving to a full house are the same as those for four to an inside straight.

Pot Odds — After Flop

Hand	Probability of Making Hand	Pot Odds
Four to a flush	34.97%	1.86
Four to an outside straight	31.45%	2.18
Four to an inside straight	16.47%	5.07

The next table shows the pot odds after the turn.

Pot Odds — After Turn

Hand	Probability of Making Hand	Pot Odds
4 to a flush	19.57%	4.11
4 to an outside straight	17.39%	4.75
4 to an inside straight	8.70%	10.50

Hand Strength Calculator

I'm proud to present my new and improved Poker Odds Calculator. Enter any situation in Texas Hold 'Em, and it will tell you the probability of each possible outcome.

Poker Tournament Calculator

My Poker Tournament Calculator will determine each player's probability, for up to nine players, of finishing in each place, and his expected share of any prize pool, assuming equal skill among all players. It produces the same results as what is known as the Independent Chip Model.

Internal Links

• Pinapple — Strategy and analysis of which card to discard before the flop.
• Bad Beat Jackpots: What is the Probability of Hitting one?
• Texas Hold 'Em Dominated Hand Probabilities: What is the probability one of your opponents has similar, and better, hole cards than yours?

Written by:Michael Shackleford